NIFTY AT 10000 LEVELS

I usually do not hazard guesses. But the landslide victory of the Bhartiya Janta Party(BJP) in the biggest electorally meaningful state of Uttar Pradesh, day before yesterday seems to compel me to WARN INVESTORS because stock market pundits and soothsayers will start building stories to befuddle you. Continue reading

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WHICH MUTUAL FUNDS TO INVEST IN?

A long break. Actually nothing exciting happening on the economy front but a lot happening on the behavioural finance front. In the last one month I have received six queries about which mutual funds to invest in, Or is this fund correct for me? Or I have these these funds in my portfolio and my advisor has asked me to switch the schemes as they are not performing. What should I do? Or simply, Which next fund do you recommend apart from PPLTVF? Continue reading

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WISH YOU A VERY HAPPY 2017

I wish all my readers and their families a very Happy 2017.

01 Jan of every year is just a milestone kind of thing, same as birthdays and anniversaries. They become pegs around which we hang our decisions.  Actually how many of them do we follow, is the only material fact. I had made a few resolutions in my last new year post on 01 Jan 2016. Let us examine those before I write further. Continue reading

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SELL NOIDA TOLL BRIDGE

Sometimes, one writes with a heavy heart. I guess today is one of those times.  I had been a proponent of investing in Noida Toll Bridge Company Ltd(NTBCL) for its free cash flows, debt free business and a moat which was a secure Government Agreement between ILF&S and the UP Govt. 

The SC judgement on 28 Oct 2016 has given an answer to the most important question, “Why is India at 130th position in ease of doing business?” One reason is we have rules and laws, but we can flout them at will. Courts can be populist like the politicians. Without even considering the fate of the minority share holders, or a warning, the Supreme Court has suspended toll collection. For an investor, what can be worse than a business which exists but has no customers. Like a shop which I own but I cannot open due to the law prohibiting me to even open the shutters. Noida Toll Bridge Co is in a similar state.
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Noida Toll Bridge Company Limited and Allahabad High Court Judgement

Yesterday evening, the Allahabad High Court has passed an order that the DND Toll Will be removed and the commuters moving from Noida to Delhi and vice versa can move freely. It is front page news in all dailies overshadowing the Mistry-Tata wars. The share price has lost 20% in one session and there are no buyers at this level. What is the prognosis? Continue reading

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INVESTMENT IDEA : DIWALI PICK

I normally desist from giving out right stock recommendations, not because I cannot, but because my outlook is 15-20 years whereas a lot of my readers despite my advice have short term views. This leads to a dichotomy. My recommendations are for wealth Continue reading

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IS THERE AN ASSET BUBBLE BUILDING UP IN THE WORLD ECONOMY?

Are  we  heading for another crisis like the sub prime crisis? I think we are.  

I am confused with the  negative bond yields and interest rates in Europe and Japan. What is happening, man? I am just thinking of scenarios.

You are paying a borrower to keep your money. Yeah, you read it correctly. If you were staying in Denmark or Sweden and you had Euros 100,000 and you wanted to keep it in a bank, you would have to pay the bank some money. I have a friend Agneshwar, he is a government official who had a stint in Geneva. He earned in Swiss Francs and left his money in the bank in Switzerland itself. After an year, he was poorer by CHF 600. His bank had deducted 600 swiss francs i.e approximately Rs 60,000/- from his account for keeping his money. Continue reading

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WHY THE OTHERS RULED INDIA AND WE DID NOT RULE OTHERS?

I had posed this question a month ago and the answer to that lies in biology, anthropology and geography more than history.

It all starts with putting life into four buckets – Bucket A is 4.5 billion years ago when earth came into existence. Bucket B is 1,50,000 years ago when Homo Sapiens evolved into their present form. Bucket C is 12000 years ago i.e when the Holocene Ice Age finished and what we see of present day life, species, people and races which Continue reading

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MONEY MONSTER : A MUST WATCH FOR STOCK MARKET INVESTORS

I am just back after watching “Money Monster”, a movie starring George Clooney and Julia Roberts. It’s a great drama on how stock market analysts spill out spam from their mouths on TV without knowing the ABCD of that business or promoters. Some of them could be even on pay rolls of promoters/manipulators. And Indian regulators ie SEBI and department of Company Affairs  being what they are, toothless tigers — how much of this would be happening on business channels on Indian  Continue reading

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WHY DID NOT INDIA RULE OVER THE TURKS, AFGHANS, PERSIANS & THE BRITISH BUT WAS RULED BY THEM?

This question was asked by  my son who is in class IX. I am looking for a logical answer. I have some theories. I want the readers to contribute some cogent ideas. Anything, except —- we were a divided lot, we were corrupt, we were selfish people,  divide and rule of British. That is all accepted and a given. There need to be stronger causative reasons. We shall develop this idea into my next blog, because this will also show a mirror to all Indians, where have we gone wrong in the last 1000 years. And last 70 years of independence, more so.  

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