What is the state of India today and how I think we would be as a nation in 2040, ie 20 years from now when I may or may not be alive as I would be beyond the Indian average life expectancy age. And what better than to go back to Fred W Riggs model of Societies , postulated by him for Public Administration and which I learnt about during an Advanced Programme in Public Policy and Administration with senior bureaucrats. I was very impressed with this model as it gave answers to why we behave the way we do and when do we change into an organised disciplined society which can take us to the category of a better livable country.
What did Riggs talk about? He divided societies into three parts – Underdeveloped, Developing and Developed. They are like a ray of light which is white and fused (undifferentiated ), it then enters a prism where it is neither white nor separated by the hues (semi differentiated) and then goes out diffracted and in distinct colours (differentiated).
The traditional societies where the elder said a word and it was obeyed by all, was the fused model. The grandfather/grandmother ruled the roost. The sarpanch or headman ruled the village and so on and so forth. In Haryana, the Khaps are part of that tradition. Then are the prismatic societies. India is inside the Prism now. And it has been so since 1980. Rather a long time. 40 years already inside the prism. And the way we function, we shall stay there for another 30 to 40 years. Before we come out diffracted. That’s far too long for a society to transform. Let me explain.
Inside the prism, there is heterogeneity and mixed rules of law and systems, there are a number of systems and rules prevalent and therefore the bureaucracy rules. There is no singular rule of law. If there is a law, the enforcement is very poor. There is a gap between prescription and remedy.
Now look at India of 2020, nepotism is rampant. People can get away, with murder, courts are there but judgments are delayed. Nobody ever gets convicted. Business thrives on cronies, contacts and friends. Stock markets thrive on insider trading, punishments for wrong doings are just a rap on the knuckle. Bureaucrats decides policies, legislators only pick people to do their bidding. Ministers are only interested in intelligent and corrupt, bureaucrats. Tax men apply the law at their discretion. And loop holes are left in policy making for interested people to exploit. People are only bothered about me, mine and myself. Hasn’t India been doing this for last 70 years?
What is the outcome of this? Indian population is the second largest pool of humans available to the globe. The educated and better off young children are migrating in huge numbers to foreign shores. The parents are disillusioned with India. They themselves cannot leave the country because they have crossed a threshold age, or have filial considerations or jobs which they can’t leave, so they are sending the kids out. And in some countries, Indian diaspora has proliferated like wild mushrooms. So,a social ecosystem is also available to the migrants.
The rich are disillusioned, they want to get an NRI status with that money. The tax system is arbitrary. The goal posts are changed by every government to suit the agenda. The fabric of the society is torn and sewn like a patch work everyday. There is no homogeneity in thought.
The people. Less said the better. They have no concern for others. Despite government issuing warnings and a list of Do’s and Dont’s, to prevent the spread of virus. Educated people who have come from abroad, knowing fully well that they are infected, are travelling on aircrafts, trains and infecting more people.
As per me, and I hope I am completely wrong, India will still be like this by 2040 too. We will only economically prosper. Our per capita GDP will jump. We will have earning power, we will have capacity to sway markets because of our consumption. We will have smart Indians who have studied at Wharton, Kellogs, Harvard, Ivey, Insead, Columbia coming back to exploit that market. But they will stay in gated communities, which keep them out of the common India. They will be the new Indian East India Company. British and American in their tastes and habits, but staying in India to mooch off the glorious markets and Indian consumers. But our traffic will still be as chaotic, dirt and muck on the roads and in neighbourhood will still be there. Our film stars will earn millions of dollars per film. Cricket following will give way to other sports. Armed forces would reduce. Healthcare will get privatised. Politicians will be richer and more dynastified than even present day. Education will improve. Stockmarkets would have risen. Banks would give yields of 2 to 3%. And as Keynes said, some of us would be dead.
What should we do? Is there any medicine for this? I think the government of the day needs to enforce the law and let the society become a rule based, law abiding citizenry. It has to start with the broken windows concept of New York Police Department. And followed up ruthlessly.